The next two years for the advanced air mobility (AAM) sector will see a wave of consolidation as some eVTOL aircraft developers drop out of the intense competition to make it to market, according to Honeywell Aerospace, a strategic partner and supplier to multiple new programs. Leaders with the U.S. group’s Uncrewed Aircraft Systems/Urban Air Mobility business unit told journalists at a briefing in London on Friday that it does not expect to see air taxi operations launching until 2026, with another two years beyond then before these scale up significantly.

However, uncrewed middle-mile cargo services could be up and running by the end of this year or early 2025, according to the company’s chief technology officer for AAM, Daniel Newman, who predicted a “culling of [eVTOL program] offers.” During the briefing, he and product director Sapan Shah demonstrated a ground control station Honeywell is developing to allow “mission managers” to direct multiple flights simultaneously. The company believes eVTOL freighters will make same-day delivery a reality anywhere.

At least two U.S. eVTOL manufacturers are still committed to completing type certification by the end of this year, in time to start commercial flights in 2025. However, Honeywell sees plenty of work still to be completed before this point is reached.

For instance, Shah indicated that it could take another 12 months for both FAA and EASA regulations to be fully established. He also flagged uncertainties over available funding, the need for companies to conduct far more impactful community engagement, and a willingness to launch services using existing infrastructure because few purpose-built vertiports are likely to be ready.

Honeywell started its direct engagement with what was to become the AAM sector when it opened its uncrewed aircraft systems center of excellence back in 2017. Then in March 2020, it established a fully-fledged business unit with a dedicated laboratory in Phoenix, Arizona, and a remit to tap and repurpose technologies from across the group for new applications.

Some of the electric aircraft manufacturers it is supporting include Archer, Pipistrel, Supernal, Volocopter, and Eve. It is also an investor and supplier with Vertical Aerospace and Lilium.

Honeywell is adapting technology already applied in sectors such as business aviation—for example, its Anthem flight deck, which will feature in Supernal’s S-A2 aircraft. It is also directing a lot of effort to so-called simplified vehicle operations (SVO) that it says could pave the way for far less experienced pilots to be able to take the controls of eVTOL models. In fact, according to Shah, they might not even be designated as pilots in an approach that would significantly expand the gene pool of recruits for the new sector of air transport.